A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
