🔗 Share this article

It was 60 days ago that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of Villa's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. When the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

That’s a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.

The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they have to face in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet find their top level.

• The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho might become the force he was during his peak.
• The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital player for the national team.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.